Trump Promises More Coal Jobs, Delivers Trade War Instead

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Saturday’s post about coal jobs in the US sparked a lively discussion thread, with one commenter pointing out that Trump’s own tariff policy is responsible for recent coal mine closures and layoffs in West Virginia. The law of unintended consequences is on brand for Trump, of course, but tariffs are not the only knife with which he has stabbed coal workers in the back, again.

Coal Jobs & Tariffs

Last Friday the US Supreme Court finally ruled that the bulk of Trump’s tariffs declarations are unconstitutional. The ruling is a day late and a dollar short for the millions of US consumers, businesses, and workers impacted by the chaotic seesaw of orders issuing from the White House, and that includes US coal jobs.

Trump has been focused like a thousand points of light on juicing domestic coal consumption by propping up old coal power plants, but that’s not necessarily going to save coal jobs. Mechanization and other productivity improvements have been picking off coal jobs for generations, and that will keep happening. The misbegotten tariff war adds another level of uncertainty to the picture, particularly in regards to the metallurgical coal required by the global steel industry.

Met coal consumption in the US has been in steady decline since peaking in 1980, leading to increased dependence on markets overseas. “Consumption in 2023 was less than a quarter of consumption in 1980. Met coal produced in the United States is increasingly exported abroad,” the Congressional Research Service noted in a new report on met coal, posted on December 10, 2025.

Ruh-roh. Throw Trump’s retaliatory tariffs into the mix, and here comes trouble. As catalogued by CRS, the tariff war of February–May 2025 culminated with China imposing a cumulative tariff total of 140% on imports of met coal from the US.

The dust finally settled on May 12, when the US and China settled on a parallel tariff of 10% over the ensuing 90 days. However, US producers still got the short end of the stick. The “deal” struck by Trump enabled China to maintain a tariff rate of 25% on met coal.

Besides, the damage was already done. CSR cites an analysis by S&P Global, which indicated that US met coal exports to China dropped almost 19% in February 2025 compared to February 2024, after China imposed an initial tariff of 15%.

“Because China is the United States’ second-largest market for met coal exports behind India, sustained retaliatory tariffs on met coal could decrease demand for U.S. met coal exports and pose certain market risks to export-oriented U.S. met coal projects,” CSR advises.

West Virginia On The Ropes

Ya don’t say? In November, the US Energy Information Agency reported that US coal exports dropped 11% overall during the first half of 2025, with China accounting for 76% of the drop in met coal and 68% of the drop in the thermal coal used in power plants.

That sets a particularly grim stage for coal jobs in West Virginia, which is by far the top met coal producer in the US. As listed by CSR, in 2023, West Virginia accounted for 46% of total US met coal production, with Alabama far behind at 12% and five other states combining for the remainder.

A recent industry analysis indicates that met coal production could tick upwards this year, but that doesn’t mean a net gain for coal jobs. As described by the firm Zachs Equity Research, much of the gain is attributed to the startup of Warrior’s Blue Creek met coal mine in Alabama, along with the re-opening of two mines in West Virginia that were temporarily shuttered by fires last year.

Warrior states that its Blue Creek operation has created 300 jobs in Alabama, but that’s no comfort to West Virginia, where hundreds more coal jobs have vaporized since Trump took office in 2025. The list includes Core Natural Resource’s Itman met coal operation in Wyoming County, where the company announced 197 layoffs in June last year.

Louisville Public Media was among those noting that the Itman layoffs represented a sharp turnaround for Core.

“In its first quarter report, released on May 8, Core said the ‘long-term market dynamics for Core’s metallurgical segment remain highly promising’” LPM reported on June 7. “However, the report also acknowledged that ‘trade-related uncertainties continue to weigh on markets’ for coal.”

“President Donald Trump signed an executive order in April to boost coal production,” LPM added. “His trade policies, though, may have undermined that goal.”

Steam Coal Is Also On The Ropes

Trump’s unforced errors on international trade aside, his so-called “energy emergency” is a double edged sword for US coal jobs. Throughout the early 2000s, low-cost natural gas was the chainsaw cutting coal out of the nation’s power generation profile. More recently, a steep drop in the cost of wind and solar power has also constrained coal, but gas is still front and center in the war on coal jobs.

Take West Virginia, for example. In addition to its leading role in the global met coal industry, the state also produces steam coal for power plants, including those within its borders. In a press release dated February 17, the United Mine Workers of America pointed out that coal currently accounts for 85% of power generation in West Virginia.

That could change if a wave of new gas power plants enters the state. Pushing back against the proposals, UMWA International President Brian Sanson stated:

“Every new gas plant replaces coal generation, and that means fewer coal jobs. That’s not a theory, it’s a fact.

“You cannot claim to support coal while building competing power plants and expect workers not to pay the price.”

“These projects are sold as job creators, but the math doesn’t work,” emphasized UMWA International Secretary-Treasurer Mike Phillippi. “Gas plants operate with a skeleton crew. Coal plants and coal mines support entire local economies.”

As indicated by UMWA, gas stakeholders also have the potential to save upfront costs by piggybacking on existing coal power infrastructure, including land as well as transmission assets. If all goes according to plan, for example, the 1960s-era Fort Martin coal power plant in Monongalia County is about to get a new neighbor in the form of a 1.2 gigawatt gas power plant. The site owners, Monongahela Power and Potomac Edison, have indicated that they plan to continue operating the coal power plant at least through 2035. Though, that remains to be seen. The new gas plant is expected to come online in 2031.

Natural gas isn’t the only piggy-backer causing heartburn among coal advocates. In the waning days of the Biden administration, the US Department of Energy made the case for re-purposing coal power sites for wind, solar, and/or nuclear energy as well as energy storage. The wind and solar parts are no-goes during Trump’s remaining years in office, but keep an eye on the nation’s thirsty nuclear energy industry. Back in 2022, the Energy Department identified more than 300 operational and retired coal power plants that could host nuclear power plants, and the industry continues to enjoy the full support of the Trump administration.

Even without the looming threat of a nuclear takeover, coal jobs have nowhere to go but down. The US Energy Information Agency, for one, has indicated that last year’s upswing in domestic coal consumption was a blip. On February 10, the agency affirmed that it continues to anticipate that US power plants will use about 7% less coal this year, compared to 2025.

Photo: US coal jobs continue to decline, with Trump’s tariff war among the factors credited with mangling the all-important overseas market for domestic metallurgical coal (courtesy of Congressional Research Service).